Good morning, Rajib.
Saha Metal Works · Howrah, West Bengal · 420 kWp Rooftop · Solar Only12:00 IST|EXP: 14:10 IST
DISPATCH DECISION #lst-47Awaiting Human Approval (Confidence 92% < 97% Auto-Threshold)
Hash: rec-rajib-202607191200
What should happen next?
Commit 420 kWh surplus to bilateral route #47
14:30–16:00 IST420 kWh
Why this action?
- +₹0.90/kWh spread arbitrage vs Discom export
- 130 kW thermal margin on 11kV feeder HM-09-A
- 97.2% deterministic solver confidence
Consequence Matrix
If Approved
+₹370 net cash
If Rejected
−₹370 foregone alpha
Recommended Market Commitment
Commit 420 kWh of forecast exportable surplus to the 14:30–16:00 IST bilateral delivery window.
Surplus clears at ₹6.40/kWh strike via bilateral peer matching (Listing #47 · Bengal Retail Collective) versus ₹5.50/kWh baseline immediate-export net-metering tariff.
Incremental Value Yield
+₹370net alpha
Strategy Net:₹2,634
DISCOM FIT Floor:₹2,264
••
Routing Optimization Decision Logic
Deterministic choice decomposition: Why Listing #47 was selected over next-best options.
Tradeoff Analysis (Listing #47 vs #31)
Listing #47 yields ₹93 less nominal theoretical delta than forward Listing #31, but resolves strictly in today's 14:30 IST window, mitigating next-day cloud coverage volatility in West Bengal and assuring 100% intraday settlement.
Formula: E[U] = (P_strike × Q) - RiskDiscount(cloud_index, t)
Constraint Fulfillment Checklist
- Delivery Time: Intraday 14:30–16:00 IST
- Grid Zone: Howrah 11kV Radial Feeder #9
- Counterparty: Bengal Retail Collective (Score: 99.4%)
- Floor Price Guardrail: ₹6.40 > ₹6.00 site minimum
L2
The Yara Operator Core (Opt-Brain 1.6)
Continuous multi-objective state evaluation under Indian C&I open-access guidelines.
Model: opt-brain-1.6.0 · fcast-kolkata-v2.4
Power Vector Balance (14:30 Window)Balanced
Forecast Generation730 kWh
-Site Internal Load310 kWh
=Net Export Surplus420 kWh
Site Demand (42.4%)Available Bilateral Alpha (57.6%)
Feeder & Electrical SCADANode: HM-09
Bus Voltage415.2 VNormal
Thermal Cap670 / 80083.7% kW
Power Factor0.98 lagCompliant
Feeder 11kV Voltage Stability (Past 4 Hours)Δ 0.4%
Compared Futures Matrix
35 Branches · N=24Monte Carlo Branching
Wait until 14:30 (Selected)
Risk 0 · Confidence 96%
₹10,343+₹454 upside
Do Nothing / Immediate FIT
Risk 0 · Static baseline
₹8,560Base scenario
Howrah Micro-Zone Trades Today22 Matched
Zone Liquidity Open:1,465 kWh
Saha Metal Works HM-09
420 kWp Monocrystalline Array · Grid Sync OK